Velocity Chart

Reports

Overview

The velocity chart shows how many story points the team completed in each past sprint, displayed as a bar chart. Over time it reveals the team's average output — the velocity — which is the single most reliable input for sprint planning commitments.

Velocity is backward-looking: it tells you what the team has delivered, not what they can theoretically do. That distinction matters — a team that consistently delivers 30 points should commit to 30 points, not 50 because the backlog has 50 ready stories.

What the chart shows

  • Bars — each bar represents one closed sprint. Height = completed story points.
  • Rolling average line — the average completed points over the last N sprints (configurable, default 6). This is the number to use for planning.
  • Committed vs completed — each bar can be split to show how many points were committed at sprint start vs how many were actually completed. A consistent gap indicates over-commitment.
  • Goal outcome indicator — each sprint bar is coloured to indicate whether the sprint goal was Met or Not Met.

Using velocity for sprint planning

The rolling average is the number to commit to in the next sprint — not the highest sprint you've ever had. Here's how to use it:

1Open KPIs & Reports → Velocity Chart before your sprint planning meeting
2Read the rolling average line — this is your planning baseline
3Add no more than 10–15% above the rolling average as a stretch target, and only if the team explicitly agrees
4Note any coming changes: team members on leave, public holidays, or other capacity reductions — these lower the effective commitment ceiling below the average
5Cross-reference with the Capacity panel to confirm hours match the point commitment
Velocity measures what the team completed, not what they worked on. Partially done stories don't count. A story moved to Done on the last day of the sprint counts; a story 90% done but not closed does not. This is intentional — it measures delivered value, not effort.

Velocity patterns and what they mean

PatternWhat it meansWhat to do
Stable velocity (low variance)The team has consistent output. Historical average is a reliable planning input.Use the rolling average confidently for sprint commitment targets.
High variance sprint-to-sprintOutput is unpredictable. Could be inconsistent story sizing, variable scope changes, or team composition changing.Investigate root causes. Retrospect on what made high-velocity sprints different from low-velocity ones.
Steady upward trendTeam is improving — better estimation, less rework, or growing familiarity with the codebase.Gradually increase sprint commitments. Avoid over-correcting on one outlier sprint.
Sudden dropAn external event: team member absent, sprint cut short, major incident, or unrealistic commitment.Note the reason in the sprint retrospective. Exclude the outlier sprint when calculating averages for planning if the cause was one-off.
Velocity higher than capacity allowsStory points may be inflated, or the team is carrying over stories from previous sprints and closing them in the current one.Audit how story points are being assigned. Re-calibrate sizing with the team.

New teams with no velocity history

For a team with fewer than 3 completed sprints, velocity data is not yet statistically meaningful. Use hours-based capacity planning instead:

  • Set allocated hours for all team members in the Members tab
  • Use the Capacity panel's available hours as your planning constraint
  • Commit conservatively in early sprints — it\'s better to complete everything than to establish a pattern of incomplete sprints
  • After 3–5 sprints, your velocity data will be reliable enough to use as the primary planning input

Chart settings

Click the settings icon on the velocity chart to configure:

  • Rolling average window — number of past sprints to include in the average (default: 6)
  • Show committed vs completed — toggle split bars to compare planned vs actual
  • Exclude sprints — mark specific sprints as outliers to exclude from the average
  • Sprint count — how many past sprints to display in the chart (default: 10)

Troubleshooting

The velocity chart is empty

Velocity requires at least one closed sprint with completed stories that have story point values. If you're in the first sprint or no stories have points assigned, the chart will be blank. Assign story points to backlog items and close at least one sprint to populate it.

Velocity looks higher than expected

Check if stories without story points are being counted as zero (they shouldn't affect velocity) or if very large stories are skewing the average. Also check if carry-over stories from previous sprints are being closed in the current sprint, which artificially boosts that sprint's velocity.

I want to exclude a sprint from the average

Open the velocity chart and click the sprint bar you want to exclude. A toggle lets you exclude outlier sprints from the rolling average calculation. The bar remains visible but is marked as excluded.

The rolling average doesn't match what I'd calculate manually

The rolling average uses the last N sprints as configured in the chart settings (default: 6 sprints). Excluded sprints are not counted. Open chart settings to verify the sprint count and which sprints are excluded.

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